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CBA Executive Director Energy Research, Aiden Bradley discusses the recent fall in oil prices and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

Employment fell by 1,000 in December, much better than the consensus forecast for 12,500 jobs to be lost over the month. The unemployment rate eased from 5.84% to a 26-month low of 5.76%.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The ASX 200 is down 1.3% after having been down about 2.2% in early trade. The energy sector has plunged 3.1% after falls in global oil prices overnight.

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

US sharemarkets fell again on Wednesday. Investors took advantage of Tuesday's gains and the early gains at the open on Wednesday to book profits and exit positions. Shares in Amazon fell by 5.8% and was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. After being down by 393 points, the Dow Jones ended lower by 365 points or 2.2%. The S&P 500 was down by 2.5% while the Nasdaq lost 160 points or 3.4%.

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This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

A Chief Economist Michael Blythe takes a look at the risks & issues likely to impact the Australian economy in 2016. This includes China's economic slowdown and the recent volatility on Chinese share markets.The global economy is increasingly dependent on China.  The risks from a structural and cyclical slowdown remain high.  The structural slowdown component continues but the cycle should respond to policy stimulus.  

·         New global themes.  Emerging risks relate to how the Chinese current account surplus is recycled, the  growing impact of Chinese financial markets on global markets, the completion of globalisation, the expansion of the services economy and the associated risks to trade, currencies and protectionism. 

Hello All,

Please find today’s Market Update. Feel free to download and disseminate on your radio stations.

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The CommSec Media Team

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

We expect the economy to grow by 2¾% in 2016.  Such an outcome would be in line with our best guess on the new potential growth rate.  As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to grind lower during 2016.  Nevertheless, unemployment will remain relatively high.  And wages growth should remain modest as a result.  Contained wages growth should go hand‑in‑hand with restrained inflation outcomes.  Relative to the Australian consensus we see some upside potential on the growth front in 2016.  The unemployment rate should undershoot the consensus as a result.  Upside growth risks also mean modest upside risks to the low inflation consensus.  From a market perspective our calls have the RBA on hold and longer‑term interest rates and the AUD sitting below the consensus. 

Hello All,

Please find today’s Market Update. Feel free to download and disseminate on your radio stations.

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The CommSec Media Team

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

A CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe takes a look at the risks & issues likely to impact the Australian economy in 2016 including the winding down of the mining CAPEX boom.

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Please find today’s Market Update. Feel free to download and disseminate on your radio stations.

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The CommSec Media Team

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe takes a look at the risks & issues likely to impact the Australian economy in 2016 including potential upside & downside surprises. Michael also discusses his outlook for the local sharemarket and interest rates.

Hello All,

Please find today’s Market Update. Feel free to download and disseminate on your radio stations.

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The CommSec Media Team

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

European shares were mixed on Wednesday. The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 0.4%, but while the German Dax eased by 0.3%, the UK FTSE was up by 0.5%. The European mining and energy indexes rose 0.8% and 1.5% respectively in response to higher metal prices and gains in oil prices early in the session. In London trade, resource company shares rose with shares in BHP Billiton up by 0.3% while Rio Tinto rose by 1.9%. 

 

* US sharemarkets fell again on Wednesday. Investors took advantage of Tuesday's gains and the early gains at the open on Wednesday to book profits and exit positions. Shares in Amazon fell by 5% and was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. With an hour of trade to go, the Dow Jones was down by 335 points or 2.0%. The S&P 500 was down by 2.3% while the Nasdaq lost 147 points or 3.1%. 

Hello All,

Please find today’s Market Update. Feel free to download and disseminate on your radio stations.

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The CommSec Media Team

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The ASX 200 has jumped 62 points or 1.3% snapping an eight session losing streak. It’s the first time this year the market has finished firmer. 

This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.